从韩国取消生育政策看中国加快生育政策调整的必要性

Abolition of family planning policy in South Korea: a precedent for China

韩国政府于1996年正式取消了传统的生育控制政策,当时的总和生育率为1.57。韩国生育政策调整的最大教训就是取消人口控制政策后,生育率不仅没能够反弹,反而出现了进一步的下降,导致最终跌入"低生育率陷阱",以至于政府后悔没能够早一点取消生育控制政策。中国目前的情形与韩国当时的情况类似,目前的总和生育率也在1.5—1.6之间,而且"单独二孩"政策"遇冷"本身就显示出生育率反弹的后劲不足,建议政府尽快实施"普遍二孩"政策,甚至可以考虑立即取消目前的人口控制政策。

Though family planning policy was abolished in South Korea in 1996,the total fertility rate,as low as 1.57 that year,continued to decrease rather than rose as expected and finally dropped into the'low fertility trap'. TheKorean government wished that the abolition had been released before it was too late. China is faced with a simi-lar situation where the total fertility rate varies between 1.5-1.6. The discouraging response to the newly released'two children'policy shows that the sign of fertility rate is negative. This paper suggests that the Chinese govern-ment allow every couple to have two children,or hopefully consider abolishing the family planning policy.