基于供应链网络的风险分析与评估方法

Risk analysis and assessment in supply chain network

从供应链中各企业内部、企业间合作关系及外部环境三个方面来考察供应链的风险,并分析了各类风险的出现概率和对整个供应链的影响程度.采用模糊评价的方法确定风险出现的概率以及影响程度,并用两者的乘积来表示该风险因素的大小,最后,将上述各值相加之和作为整个供应链的可靠度.采用这种方法,可以比较客观地比较不同供应链之间风险的大小,为企业供应链管理提供支持.

The supply chain risk has been investigated from three aspects: the inner risk of the enterprise in supply chain network,the cooperative risk between enterprises,the external environment of supply chain network.Fuzzy evaluation method is adopted to define the probability and the influence degree and the risk can be evaluated by the product of these two factors.Finally,the reliability of supply chain network is defined as the sum of above products.The method is able to assess the risk level of different supply chain and provide a support for the management of supply chain network.