道路交通网络安全风险辨识研究进展

Research and development of road traffic network security risk identification

道路交通网络安全风险辨识是交通安全管理的重要环节.从多源异构交通信息采集与处理、交通动态演化规律辨识与态势分析、交通风险评估及预警3个层面对道路网络安全风险辨识领域的研究方法、模型及存在不足进行概括,并进行了实地调查.总结发现:多源交通信息采集主要以2种或3种交通传感器数据为主,信息覆盖面低;交通态势发展分析仍局限在短时交通状态预测和估计上,缺少对广域时间尺度上的研究;多数安全风险评估建立在事故数据分析的基础上,对事故前的风险点辨识及定量评估有待提升.另外,国内城市道路交通结构复杂,机非冲突、人非冲突现象普遍存在,一定程度上阻碍了交通安全风险的有效辨识.最后,结合国内外最新技术提出了未来的研究发展方向.

The security risk identification in road traffic network is the key of traffic safety management. The research methods, models, and deficiencies that related to road network risk identification were summarized from three levels: multi-source traffic information acquisition and processing;dynamic traffic evolution pattern identification and traffic state analysis;traffic risk assessment and early warning. Then, the corresponding investigation and analysis was also conducted. The results show that the multi-source traffic information acquisition is primarily based on two or three kinds of sensor data, and the information coverage is lower;the traffic state operating analysis is still limited to short-term traffic state prediction and estimation, and the research on wide-area time scales is notably absent;most safety risk evaluations are based on accident data analysis, and the identification and the quantitative evaluation of pre-accident risks need to be supplemented. In addition, the complexity of the urban road traffic network, such as the serious conflict between vehicles and bicycles, and between vehicles and people, brings difficulties to the identification of traffic safety risks. Finally, future research and development direction is pointed out combined with the latest technology.