季节变动预测模型在药房备药系统中的应用

The Application of Seasonal Forecast Model in Drug Preparation System

目前,医院信息管理系统的已经广泛应用于各大医院,药品管理系统作为医院信息管理系统中的一部分,有效地提高了医务工作人员的工作效率。然而,对于医院药房制定采购计划仅局限于通过设立高低限量和凭借主观经验来控制采购药品的数量。这样并不能克服药品的积压和断货现象。由于药品的消耗具有季节性,所以选择季节变动预测法作为药房药品备药的预测模型。通过本方法能够预测药品的需求量,辅助拟定采购计划,有效地克服药品的积压和断货现象。

At present,the hospital information management system has been widely used in the most hospitals.The medical management system,as a part of hospital information management system,has effectively improved the medical staff's work.However,the procurement plan generated limitly by the high and low limits or by the the buyer's experiences.So it can not overcome the drug backlog and the drugs out of stock.As the consumption of drugs with seasonal trends,I chose the Seasonal forecasting model as the prediction model in the preparation of drugs.By this method it can predict the demand for drugs and support development of procurement plans,overcoming the backlog and the drugs out of stock situation effectively.