中国森林资源预测模型的结构与模拟

Structure and Simulating of the National Forest Resources Prediction Model

本文运用系统动力学方法(但又有别于系统动力学在参数估计和结构设计中的传统作法),并配合了其它一些数据处理方法,建立了由381个方程式描述的49阶系统的全国性森林资源动态模型,在微机上模拟出1975～2030年森林资源变化情况,其结果与“四·五”、“五·五”森林资源清查数字接近,与“六·五”的变化趋势一致。通过对“森林资源—经济—社会”这个大反馈系统的研究,揭示了目前导致我国森林资源危机日益加重的根源。本文还对扭转森林资源恶性循环的九类十四种模拟方案进行了政策试验。通过政策分析,找到了扭转森林资源恶性循环最经济、最有效的途径,并给出了政策临界值。根据试验结果,探讨了我国林业发展方向问题,为林业宏观决策提出了有价值的“双重转换”的建议。

This paper is about the Dynamic Prediction Model of the nation's forest resources utilizing 381 equations and 49 orders by System Dynamics, a method simulating the changes from 1975 to 2030. All of the results are similiar to the statistics of the National Forest Inventories of 1970 - 1975 and 1975 - 1980, showing demonstrating the same trend in forest statistics for 1980 -1985.By researching the forest resources-economy -society complex system, it has been revealed that the circulation of forest resources has stagnated, and the policy of tests for rectifying this situation has been proposed. According to the results of the orientation tests, development of the forest has been explored and 'double transform actions' have been suggested