摘要
本文应用灰色系统理论,选取历年冬季连续30天内≤0℃最大日数为低温指标,建立GM(1,1)模型,对绵阳市大叶桉冻害进行了预测。预测模型为:P(K+1)=25.1239e^(0.3645k)-23.1239后验差检验模型精度为第一级“GOOD”。预测下次灾年将在1999年出现。
The most days within 30 days≤0℃ in every winter has been chosen as a low temperature target and the model GM (1, 1) has been set up to calculate the freeze injury of Eucalyptus robusta Smith in Mia-nyang by the Theory of Grey System. The calculation model is P(1) (K + 1) = 25.1239e0.3645K-23.1239. And the precision of the model is grade A. 'Good' .According to the calculation of Grey System, next disaster willappear after 14 years (1999)
出处
《北京林业大学学报》
CAS
1987年第1期95-99,共5页
Journal of Beijing Forestry University
