黄金价格与经济活动——论中央银行应该增持黄金储备

Gold Price and Economic Activity—Analysis On Increasing Gold Reserve for Central Bank

本文利用上海黄金交易所的月度数据,通过协整和VAR方法发现汇率、利率、通货膨胀和股价指数与黄金价格存在长期均衡关系,金价主要受美元汇率影响。不动产与金融资产需求结构引致黄金价格和通货膨胀、股价指数的相对运动背离理论与直觉。央行应增加黄金储备并区分黄金基础与黄金调节基金,发挥黄金市场的货币调节功能。黄金价格作为通货膨胀的先行指标缺乏一致论据,但就黄金价格与汇率、利率的内在联系而论,仍需密切关注黄金价格并施加影响。

This paper finds that there is a long equilibrium relation among the dollar exchange rate,interest rate,inflation,share index and gold price in Shanghai Gold Exchange,and that foreign exchange rate has a major influence on gold price,by cointegration and VAR.Due to the special demand constructions of estate and finance assets,relative movement of gold price to inflation and share index deviate from the intuition and theory.The central bank should increase gold reserve,and distinguish gold foundation and gold regulation fund,to make gold market exert monetary accommodat- ing function.Though there is not a consistent argument for gold price as the index of leading inflation indicator,the central bank can keep a close watch and exert an influence on gold price.