国际直接投资与进出口贸易关系计量分析

Empirical Analysis on the Relationship between International Direct Investment with International Trade

本文利用1985～2006年的宏观经济数据,根据协整理论建立误差修正模型,从中国对外直接投资、外商直接投资两方面,对与贸易之间相互关系进行了计量分析。对外直接投资与进出口贸易存在长期稳定关系,短期均衡关系显著,且进出口贸易与对外直接投资有单向因果关系;外商直接投资是进出口贸易的格兰杰因果关系,两者之间存在较强的互补关系,外商直接投资对国际贸易具有促进作用。

Based on the Chinese macroeconomic data from 1985 to 2006,this paper performs an empirical research on the relationships between international direct investment and international trade.It draws a conclusion that there is a long - term equilibrium between outward FDI、FDI and international trade.The results also reveal that there is a directional causality between outward FDI and international trade;The conclusion that FDI can promote international trade also can be concluded.