自发性幕上脑出血预后的多元判别分析

Multivariate discriminant analysis for assessing prognosis after spontaneous supratentorial hemorrhage

目的 探讨影响自发性幕上脑出血预后的危险因素，建立脑出血后３０ｄ内生存或死亡的判别模型。方法 回顾性分析４８９例自发性幕上脑出血病例，对影响脑出血预后的危险因素进行单因素分析和多元判别分析。结果多元逐步判别分析发现，仅有意识障碍、出血量、伴发消化道出血等３个因素可作为判别因子，所建判别方程组内回代检验，判别符合率为８７．３％。结论 意识水平、出血量和是否伴发消化道出血 ３个因素是影响自发性幕上脑出血 ３０ ｄ预后的最重要的危险因素。

Objective To determine the most important risk factors for prognosis in patients with spontaneous supratentorial hemorrhage, andto develop a predictive model to evaluate 30 - day outcome. Method The medical records and CT scans of 489 inpatients with spontaneous supratentorial hemorrhage were retrospectively reviewed. Independent risk factors of 30-day outcome were determined using univariate and multivariate statistical analyses. Result Multivariate discriminate analysis showed that initial level of consiousness, hemorrhage size and concomitant gastro-intestinal bleeding were significant independent predictors of 30-day outcome. Using these three categories variables, the resulting moedl can predicted 30-day death or survival with an overall exactress of 87. 3%.. Conclusion Initial level of consciousness, in combination with hemorrhage size and concomitant gastro-intestinal bleeding, was a powerful and ease-to-use predictor of 30-day outcome in patients with spontaneous supratentorial hemorrhage.