企业风险分析与风险概率的修正

Enterprise Risk Analysis and the Mod ification of Risk Probability

近年来,风险分析方法的应用研究取得了较大进展,同时各种方法的优势与不足也逐渐显现出来。其中,概率分析方法在应用中就存在客观概率不易确定的难点问题,因此需用专家经验预测法得到主观概率后,利用贝叶斯公式加以修正并获得后验概率,再用后验概率代替客观概率进行风险的度量及风险收益的计算。而实施这一设想的必要前提是,明确风险分析方法的财务定位,提高企业财务管理水平。

Great progress has been made in the ap plication research on risk analysis in recent years,with advantages and dis-advantages of different approaches emerging gradually.Among others,t he probability analysis approach has difficulty in deciding objective probability,and thus it is necessary to obtain subjective probability through expert empirical prediction,modify it by the Bayesia n Formula and get a posteriori probab ility,and substitute it for objecti ve probability in risk measurement and risk premium calculation.And a necessary precon dition for applying these tentative ideas is to clarify the financial position of th e risk analysis approach and improve financial management in enterprise s.