中国高技术产品价格贸易条件:区分贸易方式的测算与分析

Analysis on Net Barter Terms of Trade for China's High-tech Products:Based on Estimation and Measurement of Distinct Pattern of Trade

采用链式指数法,以HS 6位数级编码数据测算了2000～2011年中国高技术产品不同贸易方式的价格贸易条件变动状况,并基于国际垂直专业化分工及中国高技术产业对外经贸的结构性特征,对价格贸易条件的本质属性、变动原因进行了初步分析。研究表明,对价格贸易条件的解读,更为重要的是通过各个时期出口品和进口品的单位比价关系所反映的贸易利得信息而不只是不同时期价格指数的可比性;考虑种类变化的链式指数法测算的中国高技术产品价格贸易条件要优于传统方法的测算结果,且能够还原价格贸易条件的本质属性;不同贸易方式的价格贸易条件变动态势有着明显差异:加工贸易方式的价格贸易条件先改善后恶化,而一般贸易方式的价格贸易条件持续下降且呈较大幅度恶化,总贸易的价格贸易条件位于两者之间但贴近加工贸易,也是先改善后恶化。不同贸易方式在进出口量值、垂直专业化程度、国内增值率等方面的差异可能是造成价格贸易条件变动态势明显不同的主要原因。

By employing the 'chain-type-index'method and based on HS-6 Code data from China’s Custom,this paper analyzes the variation of Net Barter Terms of Trade( NBTT) of China’s high-tech products by Customs Regime from 2000 to 2011. And the essential attributes and the reasons for the variation of NBTT have been preliminarily analyzed based on the international vertical specialization and the structural characteristics of foreign trade in China’s high-tech industry. Theoretical analysis shows that NBTT should focus on the trade profit information reflected by the unit price relationship between exports and imports in different periods,not only the comparability of price indices. Compared to traditional methods,the'chain-type-index'method can give a more accurate calculation and restore the essential attributes of NBTT by considering the variation of categories of import or export goods. The empirical result shows that there is a significant difference in NBTT trend between the Processing Trade and the Ordinary Trade: the NBTT of the Processing Trade was improved at first and then declined during the period,while the Ordinary Trade was experiencing a slowdown in its NBTT index. The total NBTT index of trade was just between them,which is also improved at first and then declined just like the Processing Trade. The following analysis shows that some factors,such as differences in import or export quantity,different VSS or different domestic value-added rate may attribute to the different variation trend of NBTT between the Processing trade and the Ordinary Trade.