摘要
选取2010～2016年"一带一路"沿线59个国家构建动态面板数据,并使用系统广义矩估计方法,实证分析了"一带一路"沿线国家基础设施对双边贸易额的影响。研究发现,沿线国家基础设施中的交通基础设施和耗电量对双边贸易规模呈显著正相关,且交通基础设施的完善程度比耗电量对双边贸易规模影响更大。由于"一带一路"沿线国家总体互联网普及率较低,使得变量互联网呈负相关。进一步考察交通运输变量的三个指标发现,变量班轮指数和航空客运量与贸易流量均呈显著正相关,因为国家间的铁路互通较少,使得铁路货运量呈负相关。基于此,为降低贸易成本,扩大双边贸易规模,我国可以进一步加大对沿线国家基础设施方面的投资,尤其是物流运输网络及电子商务网络的投资。
With a dynamic panel data from 59 countries along 'the Belt and Road'during 2010-2016,this paper empirically analyzes the impact of infrastructure of those countries on the bilateral trade by systematic GMM. The study results indicate traffic service and power consumption correlate positively to the infrastructure status,moreover,transportation infrastructure has more impacts on bilateral trade than power consumption does. Because the overall internet popularity of those countries is quite low,the variable of internet shows a negative correlation. Further investigation on three indicators of transportation variables is carried out: variable liner index and air passenger volume are correlated positively with trade flow,while the railway freight volume correlates negatively because of fewer railway exchange among countries. Based on above,in order to reduce trade costs and expand bilateral trade,it is suggested for China to increase investment in infrastructure,especially the layouts of transportation network and E-commerce network.
作者
章秀琴
余长婧
ZHANG Xiuqin;YU Changjing(School of Management Engineering,Anhui Polytechnic University,Wuhu Anhui 241000)
基金
安徽省哲学社会科学规划项目"中国与‘一带一路’沿线国家基础设施互联互通的贸易效应研究"(AHSKY2018D91)
