超对策理论的改进及应用

The Extension Hypergame Analysis and Its Application

超对策技术主要处理军事或经济贸易冲突中出现的信息失真，态势误判情形下双方的决策分析选择，这也是一种定量研究欺骗与反欺骗战术的方法。决策目标（目的）与决策分析选择实施过程有机结合是赵对策技术的一个尚不完善之处。本文提出“制约垒”概念来反映基于决策目标之下决策分析、选择、控制的动态过程，最后以“海湾危机”全过程为实际背景，用改进的超对策方法进行了分析。

The hypergame analysis mainly processes the confilct in which one or more of the players are not fully aware of the nature of the conflict situation,it is a kind of qualitative technology which decribes the decieve and anti-decieve strtegies. The defect of hypergame analysis appears in that the decision goal combines whit the course of the decision analysis. This paper puts forward the concept“sanctioned rampart”,which re- flects the dynamics course of players’decision analysis based on decision goal。At the end,the ex- tended hypergane is used to analyse the whole course of “Gulf Crisis”.