摘要
格陵兰冰盖是地球上两大仅存冰盖之一。随着气候变暖的加剧,格陵兰冰盖的消融及其对海平面上升的贡献成为国际上研究的热点问题。格陵兰冰盖全部融化将会导致全球海平面上升约7.3 m。然而,影响冰盖物质平衡变化的动力机制目前尚不清楚,是预测未来海平面上升最大的不确定性来源。针对格陵兰“冰盖—溢出冰川—海冰”系统的非稳定性关键过程开展监测与模拟研究,建立格陵兰“冰盖—溢出冰川—海冰”冰流系统的星—机—地一体化综合观测体系,支撑冰盖及其周边海冰数值模拟和影响研究,为在格陵兰地区开展长期监测和国际合作奠定基础;通过改进冰盖动力学模型,辅以冰芯古气候参数约束,降低预估海平面变化的不确定性;揭示冰盖周边海冰变化的驱动机制,侧重“西北航道”格陵兰西侧航段,对通航窗口期进行评估和预测,为加深对北极冰冻圈变化及影响的认识,服务“冰上丝绸之路”尤其是西北航道的安全航行与运营,以及为我国海岸带综合风险防范提供科学支撑。
Greenland Ice Sheet is one of the two largest ice sheets on the planet.Under the background of climate warming,the melting of the Greenland ice sheet and its contribution to sea level rise has become an international hot issue.The whole melting of the Greenland ice sheet can cause the global sea level to rise by about 7.3 meters.However,the dynamic mechanism that affects the mass balance of ice sheet is still unclear and is the greatest uncertainty source for predicting the rise in sea level in the future.The National Key Research and Development Program of China“A Study of the Monitoring,Simulation and Climate Impact of Greenland Ice Sheet”conducts monitoring and simulation studies on the key processes of instability of the“ice sheet-outlet glacier-sea ice”system,and establishes a satellite-airborne-ground integrated observation system,supporting the numerical simulation and impact research of the ice sheet and its surrounding sea ice,laying the foundation for long-term monitoring and international cooperation in Greenland.This program will work to reduce the uncertainty of sea level change projections by improving the ice sheet dynamic model forced by the ice core records,reveal the driving mechanism of sea ice changes around the ice sheet,focusing on the Northwest Passage,evaluate and forecast the navigation window period.The results of the project will deepen the understanding of the changes and impacts of the Arctic cryosphere,serve the safe navigation and operation of the Northwest Passage,and provide scientific support for the comprehensive risk prevention of coastal zones in China.
作者
效存德
陈卓奇
江利明
丁明虎
窦挺峰
Xiao Cunde;Chen Zhuoqi;Jiang Liming;Ding Minghu;Dou Tingfeng(State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology,Beijing Normal University,Beijing100875,China;State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Sciences,Northwest Institute of Ecology andEnvironmental Resources,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou730000,China;Global Change and EarthSystem Science Research Institute,Beijing Normal University,Beijing100875,China;State Key Laboratoryof Geodesy and Earth's Dynamics Institute of Geodesy and Geophysics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Wuhan430077,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing100049,China;Institute of TibetanPlateau and Polar Meteorology,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Science,Beijing100081,China)
出处
《地球科学进展》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第8期781-786,共6页
Advances in Earth Science
基金
国家重点研发计划项目“格陵兰冰盖监测、模拟及气候影响研究”(编号:2018YFC1406100)资助~~
关键词
格陵兰冰盖
海冰
星—机—地一体化综合观测体系
海平面变化
西北航道
Greenland ice sheet
Sea ice
Satellite-Airborne-Ground integrated observation system
Sea level change
The Northwest Passage
