基于M-K检验方法的沈阳地区典型水文站近53年洪水要素演变分析

Analysis of Flood Element Changes in Shenyang District Hydrological Station Based on M-K Test Method in Recent 53 Years

结合沈阳地区两个典型水文站近53年洪水要素,结合M-K检验方法对其站点洪水演变趋势进行分析,分析结果表明:东陵站洪峰呈现上升趋势外,其最大1日和最大3日洪量都呈现略递减变化趋势,大河泡站洪峰和洪量都呈现递减趋势,但趋势变化较弱;两个站点峰量关系均较好,相关系数在0.9以上,属于高度相关;东陵站洪峰突变年份在2000年,而洪量突变主要发生在80年代,大河泡站洪峰突变年费在1972年,而洪量突变主要发生2000年代,洪量和洪峰突变特征不同。

Combines the flood elements of two typical hydrological stations in Shenyang area for 53 years,and analyzes the flood evolution trend of the site with MK test method.The results show that the peak of Dongling station shows an upward trend,and its maximum 1 day and maximum 3 The daily flood volume showed a slight downward trend.The flood peak and flood volume of Dahe bubble station showed a decreasing trend,but the trend changed weakly.The peak-to-quantity relationship between the two sites was good,and the correlation coefficient was above 0.9,which was highly correlated.The year of the mutation was in 2000,and the sudden change of the flood occurred mainly in the 1980 s.The annual peak of the flood peak of the Dahe bubble station was in 1972,and the sudden change of the flood occurred mainly in the 2000 s.The characteristics of the flood and flood peaks were different.