贵州省水资源承载力预测与区域差异研究

Water Resources Carrying Capacity Prediction and Regional Differences Research in Guizhou Province

水资源不仅是人类赖以生存的物质基础,也是决定着社会经济发展程度的重要自然资源。贵州省岩溶面积广泛,水资源空间分布的极不均匀使开发利用难度加大。水资源成为制约贵州省当前乃至今后发展的重要因素。本文根据贵州岩溶地区的特点,考虑供水系统、需水系统和社会经济等影响因素,建立了贵州省水资源承载力评价指标体系。利用层次分析法确定贵州省水资源承载力主要控制因素的权重,并建立水资源承载力评价模型,对贵州省水资源承载力进行评价。从研究的结果来看,贵州水资源承载力存在区域差异性,按照从强到弱的排序为黔南州>黔东南州>铜仁市>黔西南州>贵阳市>毕节市>六盘水市>遵义市>安顺市。本文的研究方法可以为大区域岩溶水资源承载力的研究提供一定的依据和借鉴。

Water resources is not only the material base of human survival,but also an important natural resources which determines the development of social and economic.In Guizhou province karst area is broad,uneven spatial distribution of water resources make it difficult to development and utilization.Water resources has become an important factor that has influenced and will restrain the development of Guizhou.Based on the characteristics of Guizhou karst region,considering the influence of the water supply system,water demand system and the social economy,the evaluation index system of water resources carrying capacity was established.The weight of evaluation index which fixed by means of AHP method,were used to establish the evaluation model of water resources carrying capacity and evaluated the capacity of Guizhou province.Seen from the research result,it is feasible to put the model into the analysis of the water resources carrying capacity in Guizhou.The results show that water resources carrying capacity in various regions of the Guizhou province is different,sort from strong to weak as follows:Qiannan>Qiandongnan>Tongren>Qianxinan>Guiyang>Bijie>Liupanshui>Zunyi>Anshun.The research method can provide a basis and reference for the study of large areas of karst water resources carrying capacity.