基于可信度的主动配电网运行风险评估

Risk Assessment of Active Distribution Network Operation Based on Credibility

主动配电网中高渗透率的分布式电源、潮流问题以及管理模式主动化,使得配电网结构更加复杂、不确定性因素增多。蒙特卡洛抽样的随机性也使评估结果的精确度降低。为了提高主动配电网的运行评估结果的准确性,考虑到评估结果与电源、负荷抽样的不确定性,对其建立模型,提出了以可信度为基础的主动配电网风险评估方法。通过对IEEE14节点配电网标准算例的运行风险进行评估,将实时可信度和设置的可信度予以比较,从而判断主动配电网的风险评估结果是否趋于收敛。结果表明以可信度为基础的主动配电网的风险评估方法能够更高效、更准确地得到风险评估结果。

The high-permeability distributed power supply,power flow problem and active management mode in the active distribution network make the distribution network structure more complicated and uncertain factors increase.The randomness of Monte Carlo sampling also reduces the accuracy of the results.In order to improve the accuracy of the operation evaluation results of the active distribution network,this paper considers the uncertainty of the evaluation results and the uncertainty of power supply and load sampling,and establishes a model to propose an active distribution risk assessment method based on credibility.This paper evaluates the operational risk of the IEEE 14-node distribution network standard example,and compares the real-time credibility with the set credibility to determine whether the operational risk assessment results of the active distribution network tend to converge.The results show that the credibility-based approach to risk assessment of active distribution networks can obtain risk assessment results more efficiently and accurately.