四川省区域泥石流预报系统的构建与应用

Construction and Application of Debris-flow Forecasting System for Sichuan Province

基于水土耦合机制的泥石流预报方法采用小流域为基本预报单元,较为完整地体现了流域尺度上泥石流的形成过程,具有极高的推广应用价值.基于该预报方法,借助GIS强大的空间数据处理功能、Fortran高效的计算能力和C#优秀的可视化界面设计功能,设计并实现了具有较好人机交互界面的四川省区域泥石流预报系统.以2013年7月9日四川省境内大规模泥石流灾害事件作为系统的检验实例,运行结果表明:系统不仅具有运行稳定,操作简单,运算速度快和自动展示预报结果的特点,而且具有较高的预报精度,较低的漏报率和误报率.所以,系统的运行效率和预报精度均能很好地满足泥石流减灾的需求.

The forecast method of debris flow based on water-soil coupling mechanism takes the small watersheds as the forecast units.This forecast method is able to reflect the formation process of debris flow at the watershed scale,which is worth highly popularized. Based on this forecast method,a debris flow forecasting system for Sichuan Province with good man-machine interaction has been designed and implemented.Owing to the strong capability of GIS for dealing with spatial data,high computational efficiency of Fortran,and the excellent interface design function of C#,this system is constructed by combining with the above three tools. The massive disasters of debris flows in Sichuan Province on July 9,2013 was taken as the test case for this system and the run results show that the system not only has the advantages of running stable,convenient operation,fast calculation,and automatically display forecast results,but also has obvious high accuracy,low prediction failure rates and false prediction rates. Consequently,the system is able to satisfy the demand of debris flow disaster mitigation.