全面“营改增”后行业税负变动研究——基于投入产出表的模拟测算

Study on the Change of Sector Tax Burden after the Reform from Business Tax to Value- added Tax in All Industries——Estimation Based on Input- Output Tables

基于2002、2005、2007和2010年的投入产出表数据,模拟测算第一步营改增、第二步营改增,以及仅采用17%和10%两档增值税税率时的行业税负变动和行业税负,分析后得出结论:营改增对行业税负的影响程度没有时间趋势;营改增行业税负取决于适用的增值税税率;营改增行业减税效果远大于原增值税行业;第二步营改增的减税力度远大于第一步;增值税采用两档税率优于四档税率。基于此,建议中国第二步营改增时减少增值税税率档次,并重新设计税率。

Based on the data of the input- output tables in 2002,2005,2007 and 2010,the paper estimates the change of sector tax burden on the condition of the first and the second step of transformation from business tax( BT) to value- added tax( VAT),and on the condition of implementing 17% and 10% VAT rates respectively. Analysis show that the influence of VAT reform on sector tax burden has no time trend; the tax burden level of the VAT reform depends on the VAT rate adopted; the effect of sector tax reduction after VAT reform is far greater than the original VAT sectors; the effect of tax cut of the second step reform is far greater than the first step; and the two- level VAT rates is better than four- level rates. As a result,the author suggests that the level of tax rate should be reduced and redesigned in the second step transformation from BT to VAT.