云南西部山地一次降水过程分析及数值预报检验

An analysis on the heavy rainfall in the west of Yunnan and the test of numerical prediction model

2015年7月22—24日滇西的怒江州出现1次持续强降水过程,分析这次降水过程的环流背景及物理量配置,并对此过程中ECMWF和T639模式预报产品的形势场和降水量进行检验分析,结果表明:副高外围暖湿气流及冷空气在怒江州中、低空交汇形成辐合切变并持续是导致本次强降水过程的主要原因;ECMWF模式的形势场预报较之T639更接近实况,强降雨的落区和量级预报准确率ECMWF模式高于T639模式.

A continuous heavy rain process occurred from July 22 to 24,2015 in Nujiang,analysis of the precipitation process about circulation background and physical configuration,by using ECMWF and T639 models’ forecast analysis on the situation of field test and precipitation products,it has been found that the subtropical high peripheral warm moist air flow and the cold air in mid-high latitudes converged to form continuous shear line at medium and minimum altitude and finally leaded to this heavy rain process in Nujiang; The situation of ECMWF model field prediction than the T639 closer to live,rain fall area and scale of ECMWF model prediction accuracy is higher than T639 model.