中国消费结构的非线性模型

A Nonlinear Model of Chinese Consumption Structure

有关中国消费结构分析,已有不少研究,如[1],[4],[5]。本文作者之三将目前国际上较常用的几个消费结构模型作过专题介绍。由于目前国内对非线性的消费结构模型的研究还不多见,本文利用似乎不相关估计(SURE)的方法,构造了非线性的几乎理想的需求系统(AIDS),并用于食品补贴政策和消费结构的中长期预测。一个主要结果是,到2000年,我国居民的恩格尔系数仍将维持在0.45左右。

An Almost Ideal Demand System(AIDS) for Chinese is constructed. The Chinese consumption goods are divided into six classes. The model presented here includes six equations and is estimated by SURE method. It is used to analyse the policy of subsidy on food. The main result is that, if the implicit subsidy to explicit subsidy on food changes, the price of food and price of consumption goods will decrease and the Coefficient of Engle of Chinese will also decrease, which shows that the quality of Chinese living will increase. The model is also used to forecast the Chinese consumption structure from 1995-2000.