寒潮暴风雪天气过程中数值预报产品的检验分析

Analysis of Numerical Forecast Products in the SnowstormProcess of Cold Wave

采用1984～1994年3～5月的B模式物理量预告资料、ECMWF的500hPa高度场、地面气压场预告资料,逐个考察它们对寒潮暴风雪天气的预报能力,结果表明高度场、气压场、涡度、垂直速度、水汽通量、水汽通量散度、温度、全风速、温度露点差等预报量对阿勒泰区域性的寒潮暴风雪天气有较强的预报能力。

Using 500hpa height field?surface pressure field of numerical forecast products of Europe Center of Meteorological Weather Forecast from March to May in 1984-1994 ,the ability to forecast Altay snowstorm of cold wave process were tested and analysed.Results show that forecast factors of height field,pressure field,vorticity,vertical speed,vapour flux, vapour convergence,temperature,wind ,dew-point temperature,etc. have powerful forecast ability to regional snowstorm of cold wave in Altay region.