推进地学创新的地壳形变大地测量学

Crustal Deformation Geodesy Giving Impetus to Bringing Forth New Ideas in Geoscience

现代大地测量学是当今信息时代最具活力的一门地学基础学科 ,它在地震预报中的应用促进了一门前沿交叉新学科——地壳形变大地测量学的形成。地壳形变大地测量学是击破地震预报两个“瓶颈”——“时空信息不足”和“应用基础研究薄弱”的有力武器。它证实地壳动力学的基本状态不是“自组织临界状态”而是“自组织”,因而地震是可能预报的 ;它开创了“时空图像动力学预报的新途径 ,发现了几种可望具有重现性的地震前兆。在论述地壳形变大地测量学的形成 ,给出学科初步定义 ,评估成绩和问题的基础上 ,该文对当前的研究工作提出了 7项建议。

Present day geodesy is a basic discipline of geoscience being very vital in the information era of today. Its application to earthquake prediction led to the formation of an interdisciplinary frontier--crustal deformation geodesy. Crustal deformation geodesy is a powerful weapon breaking up the two bottle necks--inadequate space time information and weak applied fundamental research which restrain earthquake prediction. It has verified that the basic state of crustal dynamics is 'self organization' rather than 'self organization criticality', therefore earthquakes are predictable; it has created the new way of 'earthquake prediction by space time image dynamics', and several kinds of seismic precursors being expected to be recurrent have been found.On the basis of discussing the formation of crustal deformation geodesy, giving the discipline a preliminary definition and assessing the research results and problems, the paper puts forward seven proposals for the current research work.