转型中的中国货币流通速度新探索：制度视角——兼论“中国之谜”

New Research on the Velocity of Money during the Transition Times:Prospective of Institution

本文在已构造的逻辑框架和重新阐释了的传统货币数量论下,站在制度视角对中国的货币流通速度不断下降的现象给予了全新的解释。本文的基本结论是,中国货币流通速度的不断下降是在制度资本(包括正式制度和非正式制度)不足下经济主体对经济资本即现金货币过度依赖的结果,它是转型期制度不完善的必然现象,表明了中国制度绩效的不断恶化,也是粗放的中国经济高费用低效率运行的表现。随着市场化进程的逐步推进,各项制度的不断完善,经济主体交易行为的规范,中国的货币流通速度将经历一个先下降后上升而后趋于平稳的过程。在此基础上,本文还对经济学界的"中国之谜"给出了新的解释。本文的研究结论对长期货币政策的制定有一定启发,本文的一项重要建议就是中国应该积极推进法治化建设,以提高交易效率。

This thesis firstly establishes a framework and re-explains the tradi- tional monetary quantity theory,and then offers a new explanation to the decrea- sing of China's money velocity from the prospective of institution.The conclusion is because China lacks of enough institution capital so that it needs more economic capital instead.It's the just phenomenon accompanying with the transition times, which indicates the performance of China's institution be getting more and more bad and China's economy be performing with high cost and low efficiency.With the process of marketization,many institutions are getting better and better,transac- tion behavior will also get more and more normal.So the velocity of money will in- crease and get stably after decrease for some years.So the paradox of China is not a paradox any more.We have two advice from this paper's conclusion,one is for the establishment of long-run monetary policy,another is China should pay more at- tention to establishment of ruling by law to ensure the enforcement of economic contracts.