贸易顺差、挤入效应与消费率提高

Trade Surplus,Crowding In and Consumption Rate Raising

贸易顺差是中国国民储蓄向国外溢出,是中国把净出口获得的外汇储蓄借给国外消费。"挤入效应"是近些年来中国对美国经常项目贸易顺差逐步扩大的经济现象,是一种解释"资本从穷国流向富国"的经济理论,是美国一些经济学家诠释中美贸易关系(顺差—逆差)形成原因的分析框架,"挤入效应"的背后是中国牺牲了国内的消费。中国传统的出口贸易增长方式一方面造成中美贸易摩擦、政治摩擦,另一方面则"挤出"了中国国内的消费需求,只有消费率提高了,中国经济增长的内生力才能形成。提高消费率是中国享用自己的巨大财富的要求,是中国转换经济发展模式的要求,也是促进贸易平衡的要求。

Trade surplus is the spillover of Chinese national saving,it means China lent its foreign currency saving to foreigner.Crowding-in is the economic phenomenon of Chinese trade surplus expansion,is the economic theory of explai- ning'capital flowing to rich country from poor country',is the analysis framework of some American economists explaining trade relation between China and Ameri- ca,it means Chinese sacrifice their consumption.Chinese old models of export in- creasing made trade conflict and political conflict between China and America,and it crowd out Chinese consumption.Consumption rate raising will help Chinese eco- nomic growth.Consumption rate raising is the demand of Chinese enjoying their large wealth,the demand of china transferring its models of economic develop- ment,the demand of trade balance.