建构理性主义、负产出缺口与自由化过程中的金融危机——基于20个转轨经济的证据

Construction of Reasonism of Finance,Nagitive Gap of Output and the Finance Crisis in the Transformative Economy

作为建构主义政策的一部分,在20世纪中叶,苏联等计划经济国家系统性推行金融抑制政策。金融抑制虽有短期增长效应,但本文理论模型表明,因抑制私人储蓄等原因,它使总供给曲线快速进入闭锁状态,生产可能性曲线相应左移;金融抑制原本被视为缓解稀缺性的手段,最终演变为加剧稀缺性的原因。然而,以自由化、私有化和稳定化等为核心内容的经济转轨,因数量与价格、金融市场与产品市场调整速度的相对差异,抑制经济中的负产出缺口显性化,并成为金融危机的导火索。以19个转轨经济为例,用1990～2001年间的数据,本文对上述假设进行实证分析。概率模型分析结果表明,抑制愈严重,负产出效应愈显著,愈易于爆发系统性金融危机;抑制时间愈长,危机持续时间愈长。

As a part of system of constructional reason policy,such planned economy as the USSR constrains its finance system during earlier of 20 century.The restraining of finance may stimulate the economy short term.However,in the long term,the system can make the macroeconomic stagnancy since it has restrained the private saving and the availability on capital.The policy of restraining of finance has been used to mitigate the poverty.In fact;it has become the cause of poverty.The transformation of economy with the main menu of liberation,privation and stabilizing,may encounter the finance crises resulting from negative gap of output.Using the data of 1990-2001 of 19 countries,the paper give a positive research on the theses.We find that,the more seriously of restraining of finance, the more of negative gap of output and the more probability of finance crisis.