中国土地政策有效性研究——基于土地供应的实证分析

The Validity Research of Land Macro-control of China-Empirical Analysis from Land Supply

以土地供应为土地要素纳入宏观调控的核心数据,运用VAR模型和脉冲函数,进行协整检验并构建误差修正模型,分析土地要素对经济增长、财政政策、货币政策的影响,实证表明地方政府利益驱动、微观执行基础缺失或不足和政策协调性不足是导致土地政策有效性有待进一步提高的原因。对此,本文提出进一步完善土地政策调控体系的相关政策建议,并辅以配套的财政政策和货币政策。

The role that land supply plays in macro-control involved with land element is very important.In the paper,we use VAR model,impulse function, the cointegration test and build error correct model to analyze the impact of land element on GDP,fiscal policy and monetary policy.The analysis shows that the interests of local government-driven,the absence of micro implementation foundation and the lack of policy coordination are the most important reasons that the effectiveness of land policy should be further enhanced.Based on this,it puts forward some corresponding policies to improve the validity of land macro-control.