滇东地区未来数年M≥6.0地震的统计预测

Statistical forecasting of M≥6.0 earthquakes in East Yunnan Province for the coming several years

从全概率公式出发 ,运用古登堡公式对滇东地区震级频度关系、地震活动性及地震复发周期进行了统计分析 ,认为该地区未来 3～ 4年内有发生M≥ 6.

Statistical analysis is made of the magnitude-frequency relation,of the seismic activity and the earthquake recurrence period for the East Yunnan Province on the basis of Gutenberg-Richter relation as well as the formula of total probability. As a result, it is believed that an earthquake of M ≥6.0 is likely to occur in this area in the future 3～4 years.