数字化测逸出氡替代模拟测水氡的理论与实践

Study on the replacement of digital radon observation to analogical radon observation in earthquake monitoring and prediction

模拟测水氡方法已有40年历史,氡浓度异常变化预测地震取得了较好的效果,在地震短临预报中发挥了重要作用。80年代中期,人们逐渐认识到自流井中逸出气氡的信息量和异常量远远大于溶解氡,随即开始对逸出气氡的微动态进行研究,并在"九五"期间研制出目前国内功能、技术性能指标最佳的数字化测氡仪。然而数字化观测逸出氡能否代替模拟观测水氡存在不同意见,通过理论上的分析和观测气氡实际震例的研究,阐明模拟测水氡和测逸出氡的差异和一致性,认为有逸出氡的井、泉测逸出氡完全可以代替模拟测水氡,其效果更佳。

The analogical observation of radon for earthquake prediction has gone through a period of 40 years. Earthquake prediction by means of monitoring the changes of the concentration of radon has so far achieved good result and has played an important role in shorttime earthquake prediction. By the middle 1980', it was gradually recognized that the amount of information and anomaly of escaped radon from selfflowing well was far greater than that of soluble radon. As a result, the study of microdynamic state of the escaped radon was conducted and the automatic radon meter for observing the escaped radon was developed. During the 'NinthFive Year Plan' period, the digital radon meter was developed, whose specification of function and technical performance has been the best in domestic at present. However, there are different opinions whether digital observation of the escaped radon can replace analogical radon observation. By theoretical analysis and study of the earthquake cases through escaped radon observation, this paper explains the difference and consistency of analogical radon observation and digital escaped radon observation, and reaches the conclusion that digital radon observation can completely replace analogical radon observation is wells and springs where escaped radon can be detected with better performance.