浙江省秋季降水趋势及旱涝年特征

Autumn Rainfall Trends and Features of Flood and Drought Years of Zhejiang Province

用浙江省 3 6站 3 9a的降水资料及全国 1 60站 49a降水和气温资料研究浙江省秋季降水的变化趋势及旱涝特征。结果表明 :浙江省秋季降水具有明显负趋势。还指出 :浙江省秋季旱涝变化的主要形式是全省基本一致的趋势 ,但沿海与内陆的变化有一定差异 ;浙江省的旱涝与我国秋季的大尺度雨带的位置的关系密切 ;旱涝前期我国气象要素场有明显的异常特征。用蒙特卡罗 (Monte Carlo)模拟方法和 t检验法对气象要素的长期变化进行了统计检验。

Using a 39-year monthly and seasonal rainfall data set observed at 36 stations in Zhejiang Province and a 49-year rainfall and temperature data set at 160 stations in the whole China, a detail study has been undertaken of climatic variation features of the rainfall and autumn flood/drought of Zhejiang Province.Results show that the decreasing trend of rainfall in autumn is evident.It is found that the autumn flood/drought all over Zhejiang Province is basically similar,but there is a little difference between coastal region and inland;there is a close relation between the autumn flood/drought of Zhejiang Province and the position of large-scale rainbelts, and the meteorological elements(rainfall and temperature) show abnormal features in large-scale areas in the summer before the autumn flood/drought of Zhejiang.Monte Carlo simulation approach and t-test method are used in checking the significance of the long term changes of meteorological elements.