家蚕微粒子病流行发生与气象因子的关系分析研究

Analytical study on the relation with pebrine disease prevalence to climatic factors

通过收集整理广东省家蚕原种微粒子病流行发生的原始数据 ,利用最优子集回归分析法分析了原种微粒子病发病率与当地气象因子的关系 ,结果全年原种微粒子病发病率与年平均气温及其距平有极显著的正相关关系。各批次原种微粒子病发病率与相关月份的平均气温相关显著 ;原种微粒子病年发病率与 4、 11月两月的降雨量相关关系较显著 ;原种微粒子病发病率与5、 6、 7月两月的日照时数的相关关系显著 ,与 6月份的日照时数呈正相关 ,而与 5、 7月两月的日照时数呈负相关。气象因子以温度和日照时数对家蚕微粒子病流行发生的影响最为显著 ,气温是影响原种微粒子病流行发生的重要原因之一。表 2 ,参 8。

In accordance with the prevalence of the pebrine ( Nosema bombycis mori, N.b)disease of silkworm( Bombycx mori. L.)parent eggs'data and main climatic factors in a silkworm production farm in Guangdong province in the past decades.The relationship between pebrine disease prevalence and local chimatic factors was investigated by the optimal subset of regression analysis, the results showed that the prevalence of N.b disease of the silkworms is positive correlated with the mean annual temperature and its distance on the average level. But in the year round,it is the most appreciable that the monthly mean temperature affects the relative disease prevalence. The relationship between the N.b disease prevalence of the silkworm parent eggs and the rainfall is also investigated The results show that it is most appreciable for Apr. And Dec. rainfall to the disease culled ratio The relationship between the N.b disease prevalence of the silkworm parent eggs and the sunlight is also investigated, too. The results is that the disease prevalence is remarkably correlated with the sunshine of May,June and July in one year. Above all, the temperature and sunlight are chiefly relation with the prevalence of the pebrine disease in all climatic factors, and the temperature is one of the most important factors.