基于灰色系统理论的森林火灾预测模型研究

RESEARCH ON FORECASTING MODEL OF FOREST FIRE BASED ON GREY-SYSTEM THEORY

依据灰色系统建模的基本理论 ,在系统分析内蒙古大兴安岭林区森林火灾发生规律的基础上 ,建立了森林火灾高火险及重灾年景灰色灾变GM(1,1)预测模型。模型模拟检验精度达到I级水平 ,发展系数 -α小于 0 3,可用于该地区森林火灾灾变中长期预测。预测结果显示 ,2 0 0 1～ 2 0 10年间 ,该林区将出现 3个森林火灾高火险年 ,5个森林火灾重灾年 ,二者出现的间隔期均为 2～ 3a ,平均相对精度达 98%以上 ;预测 2 0 0 7年将是高火险、重灾年份 ,前者预测精度为 98 0 5 % ,后者预测精度为 99 78%。

Acording to grey system theory, two forceasting models(Grey Model of disaster change) of forest fire's high risk age and forest fire's Mass Hazards Age were founded, which were based on the systematic analysis of the forest fire disciplinary occur in Daxingan Mountain forestry of Inner Mongolia. The verify precision of model simulating comes to first level, its expand modulus( -a ) was less than 0\^3. So the two models could be used as medium term or long term forecasting on the Daxingan Mountain forestry's disaster changes. The results showed that there will be three are three high risk fire years and five heave risk years during 2001 to 2010. Their lagging time will be 2 to 3 years, which precisions were higher than 98%. 2007 will be the Forest Fire's High Risk Age and the Forest Fire's Mass Hazards Age, with precisions of 98\^05% and 99\^78%.