摘要
专家存在的信息结构性偏差和认知结构性偏差等问题,导致专家评价存在随机性和不一致性,专家群评价结果的可信度受到质疑.使用心理统计学的信度系数对单个专家和专家群评价结果的可信度进行度量,并运用双因素固定效应模型对评价结果的误差来源做进一步分析和检验,能同时实现分析判断评价结果的公平合理性和专家评价的可信程度.最后通过一个评标案例进行了实证分析.
Information structural bias and cognitive structural bias and other issues lead to randomness and inconsistency of expert evaluations,calling into question the reliability of evaluation outcomes of expert groups.To solve this problem,psychological statistics reliability was used to measure expert reliability for individual experts and expert groups;then,two-factor fixed effects model was used to further analyze and test the sources of error.This can simultaneously analyze and evaluate the fairness and reasonableness of evaluation outcome and the reliability of experts.Finally,an empirical analysis was carried out with a tender evaluation case.
关键词
评价结果
可信度
方差分析
evaluation outcome
reliability
analysis of variance(ANOVA)
