北方地区小麦生产的投入要素及影响因素实证分析

An Empirical Study on Input and Causal Factors of Wheat Production in the North China

本文以我国北方最主要的粮食作物小麦为例 ,分别选取东、中、西部的山东、山西和陕西三省的 466个小麦种植户 2 0 0 2年横截面数据为样本 ,在农户微观层面运用扩展的C -D生产函数 ,实证分析了投入要素及其他影响因素在小麦生产中的作用。结果表明 :劳动和化肥投入的边际产出在大多数情况下呈负值 ,他们的边际产出远远小于耕地的边际产出 ,耕地是小麦生产最主要的投入要素 ;与投工和化肥的弹性系数比较而言 ,机械、水电等其它投入的边际效果比较明显 ;灌溉条件和地形状况对小麦生产具有显著的影响作用 ;而劳动力人均耕地、小麦在农户农业生产中的地位、户主年龄及教育特征对小麦生产影响不大。结论认为 :通过土地整理等手段增加耕地数量 ,大力保护耕地 ,改善灌溉条件、地形状况等耕地质量 ,促进农村劳动力的有效转移 ,合理利用劳动力和化肥 ,继续适度进行机械、水电等投入是提高粮食产量的有效途径。

This article analyses empirically the effects of input and causal factors by expanded C-D production function from the micro-household perspective, focusing on wheat, the most primary food crop in north China.466 cross-sectional household cases of year 2002 were selected for the analysis, distributed in Shandong, Shanxi and Shaanxi provinces ,respectively from the east, middle and west of China. As a result, marginal output of labor and fertilizer input is negative under the most conditions, far less than that of land, and land is the most primary input factor; Compared with the elasticity of labor and fertilizer input, the marginal effects of machine and irrigation are distinct; Irrigation and land condition have prominent effect on wheat production; However, land acre per labor, the proportion of wheat in household agriculture production, age and education attribute of household head have little effect on wheat production. So there are some effective ways to increase grain output, such as increasing total area of cultivated land through land consolidation, making effort to protect land, improving land quality such as irrigation and land condition, promoting rural labor migration, using labor and fertilizer rationally, enhancing machine and irrigation input moderately.