中国高货币化影响因素的协整分析

Cointegration Analysis of China’s High Monetization Effect Factors

货币化率是衡量一个国家或地区金融广化和深化的重要指标,用M2/GDP表示。近些年来,中国货币化比率不断攀升,甚至已超越欧美等发达国家。但如此高的货币化率并不能说明中国金融经济发展水平已经很高,中国正处于经济转型时期,经济体系的特殊性导致了高货币化率,利用Eviews软件,通过ADF检验,建立了长期均衡的协整方程以及短期的误差修正模型,结果表面外汇占款、居民储蓄、固定资产投资、金融市场不成熟成为主要的影响因素。可以从高货币化看出中国经济改革取得了很大的成果,但它所反映的问题,如汇率制度不完善、融资方式单一、商业银行流动性风险高等必须得到正视。应采取相应措施完善中国的经济体系。

The ratio of currency is an important indicator for the development of finance and expressed by M2/GDP.In recent years,the development of the currency supply is far higher than the development of GDP in China.It makes the ration of curren-cy grow rapidly and beyond the developing countries like United States and Europe.However,such a high ration can not indicate that the development of the finance is prefect.China faces a time of economic restructuring,the special structure of economic market lead the high level of the ration of currency.By using Eviews and though ADF test,we build thecointegration equation of long-run equilibrium and short-term error correction model,which finds that the funds outstanding for foreign exchange,deposit,the investment of fixed assets and credit financing is the key element which are effect the M2/GDP.High rate of the currency is an achievement of the economic revolution,however,the problems such as the single way of fiancing and the liquidity risk of commercial banks are can’t be ignored.We need take more actions to make a better economic system.