经济增长与能源消费之间的关系——来自湖北的实证分析

The Relationship of Economic Growth and Energy Consumption——Take Hubei Province as an Example

能源是经济增长的动力,提高能源有效利用率,对于促进经济又好又快发展起着重要作用。提高能源利用率的同时,需要明确不同产业部门与能源消费之间关系以及产业结构变动对于能源消费的影响。本文运用协整分析误差修正模型,同时利用脉冲响应和方差分解研究不同产业部门与能源消费之间的长期和短期关系。结果发现,从长期和短期来看,能源消费的主要部门来自第二产业,能源消费主要是煤炭资源;产业结构是能源消费的重要因素,经济增长与能源消费之间关系是非线性的;能源消费的长期和短期波动主要是来自第二、三产业。

Energy is the engine of economic growth,and improving the utilization efficiency of energy plays a key role in the economical development.When improving the energy efficiency,we should make the differences between the industrial sectors and the relationship between energy consumption and industrial structure changing on energy consumption clearly.In this paper we use cointegration,impulse response and variance decomposition to analysis energy consumption in different industrial sectors and their relationships in short and long term.The results is that,in the long and short term,the second industry is the main sector of energy consumption,and coal in the mainly energy consumption;The industrial structure also an important factor in energy consumption,and the relationship between economic growth and energy consumption is nonlinear;The fluctuations of energy consumption mainly from second industries and service industries in the long-term and short-term.