产业结构、城市化与能源效率的动态关系——基于VAR模型的实证研究

The Dynamic Relationship Between Industrial Structure,Urbanization and Energy Efficiency——A Empirical study based on VAR model

能源效率提升是我国面临的迫切问题之一,而产业结构调整和城市化进程是必经之路,那么产业结构调整和城市化水平能促进能源效率的提升吗?围绕这个问题,通过构建VAR模型分析产业结构、城市化水平与能源效率变动的动态关系。研究表明:(1)我国能源效率大体呈先上升后下降的"倒U型"趋势;(2)产业结构的优化升级有利于能源效率的提升;(3)城市化率短期内有利于、但长期不利于能源效率的提高;(4)短期内产业结构和城市化水平对能源效率方差贡献有一定的滞后性,但从长期看,产业结构的方差贡献最高。因此,推动产业结构的优化升级和城市化进程质量提高有利于我国能源效率的提高。

Energy efficiency is one of the most urgent issues which our country faces,and the readjustment of industrial structure and the progress of urbanization are necessary for it.Can they promote energy efficiency? This paper focuses on this problem by building a VAR model to analyze the dynamic relationship of industrial structure,urbanization and energy efficiency.Research indicates that: (1) Our country’s energy efficiency increases early and then drops in the "pour U" trend;(2) The optimization of industrial structure is favorable for promotion of energy efficiency;(3) Urbanization rate is favorable for the short term but not beneficial in the long term promotion of energy efficiency; (4) In the short term ,the readjustment of the industrial structure and the urbanization level have a certain hysteresis on the variance contribution of Energy efficiency.But,in the long run,the variance contribution of industrial structure will be the highest.Therefore,the optimization of industrial structure and improvement of the quality of urbanization is conducive to promotion of China’s energy efficiency.