黄毛鼠种群数量中短期预测模型的研究

Studies on the Metaphase and Short Term Predicting Model of Rattus rattoides Population Numbers

本文用数量化理论建立了黄毛鼠种群的中短期预测模型．模型中选择了7类生态因子．包括繁殖指数、降雨量、相对湿度、平均温度、农时、作物换茬和季节变化．并建立了预测方法．分别对1987～1989年和1992～1993年的黄毛鼠发生量进行了预测，模型的准确度达70％以上．同时．也分析了农田生态因子的特征．

The predicting model of Rattus rattoides population numbers was set up by using quantification theory. Seven ecological factors were selected in the model including reptoductive index, rainfall, relative humidity, average tempelature, farming season, change of crop and seasonal variation. It was showed that the model was effective accotding to the investisation data from 1987 to 1989 and from 1992 to 1993. The character of the ecological factors of farming field was still analysed.