农田啮齿动物种群数量预测预报的一种方法

An Introduction of Forecasting Method for Farmland Rodents

介绍利用时间序列模型～三次指数平滑法，结合季节指数法，对农田啮齿动物种群数量进行预测预报。并以板齿鼠和黄毛鼠作为示例，编制计算机程序，对两种鼠进行了种群数量的中长期预测（６～１２月），分别预测了１９９４年和１９９５年板齿鼠（Ｂａｎｄｉｃｏｔａｉｎｄｉｃａ）和黄毛鼠（Ｒａｔｕｓｒａｔｏｉｄｅｓ）种群数量的发生，预测准确率达到了８５％以上。

A method of forecasting population fluctuation of farmland rodents was introduced,which are time series models:The triple exponential smoothing model combined with seasonal adjustment model And the examples were given Based on the data surveied in Shiwan town of Boluo county and Humen town of Dongguan city,Guangdong province,from 1991～1993;the population density of Bandicota indica Bechstein and Rattus rattoides Hodgson were forecasted month by month in 1994,1995 separately,the rate of accuracy of forecasting was over 85%