劳动力转移下的中国农业经济增长——基于1986-2005年的经验证据

Agricultural Economic Growth under Rural Labor Migration in China——Based on the Empirical Evidence:1986-2005

本文以新古典经济学的农业劳动力转移理论为基础构建计量经济模型,运用1986—2005年的数据,对我国农业劳动力转移对农业经济增长的影响做了实证分析,结合中国农村的具体情况进一步深入分析得出以下结论:第一,农业劳动力转移对农业经济增长有显著的促进作用。第二,农业劳动力转移促进农业经济增长的传导机制在于:促进了农村土地流转,使农业生产初具规模,农业机械使用增加,显著地推动了农业经济增长。第三,农民工社会保障的缺失,使土地出租短期化,土地改良投资小,化肥施用量大大增加,化肥的大量使用使土壤肥力下降,引起了农业产出下降。

In this paper, an econometric model based on the rural labor migration theory of the new classical economics was built. The data from 1986 to 2005 were used to make empirical analysis on the impact of rural labor migration on agricultural economic growth. Finally, following conclusions were drawn: first, rural labor migration has significantly influenced the agricultural economic growth. Second, rural labor migration promotes farmland circulation, which enlarges the agricultural production scale, increases the adoption of agricultural machinery and significantly promotes agricultural economic growth. Third, the lack of migrant workers' social securities results in short-term farmland-rent, lack of land improvements investment and increased use of fertilizers, which both lead to soil fertility decline and finally falling down of the agricultural output.