西方预期理论的发展及其启示

The Development and Inspiration of The West Expectation Theory

瑞典学派借助事前和事后分析法 ,较早地关注了预期的作用 ;凯恩斯以预期为基础构建了其理论体系 ,确立了预期在经济分析中的地位 ,强调“心理因素” ,使预期仅具有外生性 ;新古典宏观经济学以理性人假设为基础推演出理性预期 ,使预期能够作为内生变量纳入经济模型 ,但其理论证据尚缺 ,且在应用中存在一定的技术性困难。尽管存在这样那样的缺陷 。

Earlier Swedish school had studied the role of expectation by the analysis method of ex ante and ex post.Later,Keynesian built his theory on the expectation base,and established the position of expectation in the economic analysis .But because it emphasized'psychology factor',the expectation only showed its exteral properties.New classical macroeconomics deducted the Rational expectation from hypothesis of rational person and put it into economic model as the endogenous variable,but it also shows some shortcomings,which are in difficulty in its use and in lack of digit dvidence.The theory gives us great inspiration for understanding economic movement although there are vairous defects.