技术进步对中国能源供需结构的影响

Effect of technological advancement on structures of energy supply and demand in China

技术进步是中国能源供需结构优化调整的主要途径之一 ,从技术进步的角度对中国的能源结构进行了预测 .综合运用从上到下和由下向上相结合的方法建立了体现技术进步对能源系统影响的模型 .基于复杂适应系统 (ComplexAdaptiveSystem ,简称CAS)对技术创新的产生机理进行了理论分析 ,计算了不同能源的竞争力 ,在此基础上预测了能源供应结构 .将技术进步分为内生技术进步和外生技术进步两种类型 ,分别计算了它们对单位GDP能耗的影响 ,据此预测了能源需求量和需求结构 .

Technological advancement is one of the main approaches to optimize and adjust the structures of energy supply and demand in China and the structures of Chinese energy are forecasted from this viewpoint. An energy system model was established by integrating the bottom-up and top-down approaches. The mechanism of technological innovation is discussed using the complex adaptive system (CAS) theory. By calculating the competitireness ability of different energies, the structure of energy supply was forecasted, by calculating the change of energy efficiency induced by the exogenous and endogenous technological advaucement, the quantities and structures of energy demands were forecasted. The predicted energy supply structure is consistent with the energy demand structure.