寿命表相关回归法预测尘肺病人生存年限的研究

Prediction of the survival year-span of pneumoconiotic patients by life table with leanear correlation and regression.

本文应用寿命表相关回归法对我市3570例初次诊断Ⅰ期尘肺病人死亡趋势及肺结核死因对尘肺病人生存年限影响分析表明:Ⅰ期尘肺病程累积死亡机率变化趋势为(?)X=0.1010x+3.0973(r=0.9947)。从理论上推算Ⅰ期尘肺病人预期生存年限为11.7年。在去除肺结核死因后,尘肺病人期望生存年限为12.3年,平均延长0.6年,其累积死亡机率趋势为(?)_x^(-i)=0.0937x+3.0756(r=0.9943)。提示我们应重视尘肺病人的防痨抗痨工作。

The death tendency of 3570 cases of stageⅠpneumoconiosis in Huangshi city and the influence of survival year-span by the fatal pulmonary tuberculesis were analysed by means of life table with leanear correlation and regression. Results showed that there was a positive correlation between probit of accumulated death (including all causes of death) and years after diagnosis of stageⅠ. Linear regression equation was Qx=0.1010x+3.0793 (r=0.9947). The expected average survival year after diagnosis seemed to be 11.7 years, and if cause of death of pulmonary tuberculosis was eliminated, linear regression equatior would be Qx=0.0975x+3.0756(r=0.9943) The expected average survival year after diagnosis would be 12.3 years. It suggested that appeared to be important to pay attention to the prevention and treatment of pneumoconiosis complicated with pulmonary tuberculosis.