中国上市公司可持续增长的实证分析

Empirical Study on the Sustainable Growth of the Public Companies in China

可持续增长是公司制企业实现股东财富最大化的长远目标。为验证我国上市公司在邓小平“南巡讲话”后的可持续增长情况 ,笔者借助美国资深财务学家罗伯特·希金斯 (RobertHiggins ,1977)和詹姆斯·范霍恩 (JamesVanHerne)的可持续增长模型 (SGM) ,运用数理统计方法检验了我国上市公司 1993-2 0 0 0年度各行业的可持续增长情况。检验结果表明 :除电子电器行业实现了可持续增长外 ,其余各行业均未实现可持续增长。其中 ,轻工行业和农业行业有投资不足倾向 。

The sustainable growth is the corporation's final object to the maximum of the stock-holder's wealth. To validate the development of the Chinese public companies after Dengxiaoping's Nanxun speech ,this paper tests the sustainable growth status of the Chinese public companies during the period from 1993 to 2000 by using mathematical statistics method and sustainable growth model brought forward by Robert Higgins and James Van Herne. These companies are classified by trade. The test results show that no trade realized sustainable growth except electronic and electric trade. Results also indicate that public companies in light industry and agricultural sectors have a trend of under-investment while those in other sectors have a trend of over investment.