中国外债的最佳币种结构与期限结构

Optimum currency structure and term structure of Chinese foreign debt

为防范外债的汇率风险和利率风险 ,该文运用现代投资理论中的有价证券组合理论 ,根据债务的实际成本 ,在综合考虑了外汇储备结构和外贸收支外汇结构的条件下 ,提出了一种中国外债的最佳币种结构和期限结构的计算方法。并运用实际统计数据 ,用这种方法计算了中国外债的最佳币种结构和期限结构。计算结果与中国外债状况基本相符 ,如美元债务占中国外债总额的 60 %～ 70 %。研究结果表明 ,这种研究方法是可行的。

The asset allocation investment theory was used to calculate the optimum currency composition and term structure of foreign debt considering the total realized cost of the foreign debt, the structure of the foreign exchange reserves and the structure of the foreign trade. The result agrees with the actual foreign debt in China. For example, the US dollar debt is 60%～70% of the total foreign debt in China. The analysis also shows that this method is feasible and effective.