未来中国的SO_2和CO_2排放控制对策

Future SO_2 and CO_2 emission control strategies in China

应用能源 -环境耦合的 MARKAL模型研究未来中国的 SO2 和 CO2 排放控制对策。模型的运行结果表明 :若2 0 5 0年 SO2 排放量控制在 10 Mt,终端能源消费构成中天然气的份额需达 3 2 .2 8% ,而有脱硫作用的高效先进煤电及油气发电机组的装机容量在总装机容量中的份额将达49.44 % ;若 2 0 5 0年 CO2 排放控制在 2 1亿 t(以碳计 ) ,核能、水电以及风能、太阳能、地热能等新能源在一次能源消费构成中的份额需达 3 4.91%。因此 ,SO2 排放控制的主要对策在于城市清洁能源的大规模应用以及有脱硫作用的高效先进火电机组的推广 ;而 CO2

The MARKAL model, an integrated energy and environmental model, was used to study future SO 2 and CO 2 emission control strategies in China. The model results show that if the 2050 SO 2 emission control target is 10 Mt, the share of gas in the final energy consumption mix should reach 32% and advanced thermal power generation with desulfurization should account for 49% of the total power generation capacity. If the 2050 CO 2 emission control target is 2.1 Gt (carbon), the share of nuclear, hydro, wind, solar and geothermal energy sources in the primary energy consumption mix should be 35%. Therefore, China's future SO 2 emission control strategies must rely on large scale use of urban clean energy and advanced thermal power generation units with desulfuration, while CO 2 emission control strategies must rely on large scale utilization of new and renewable energy sources.