一种突发性洪水频率分析计算方法——以叶尔羌河为例

A method for the frequency analysis of flash flood——Take an example of Yerqiang river

突发性洪水具有发生突然、来势凶猛、水量集中 ,洪水过程历时短、难以预报等特点 ,使河流洪峰年际变幅很大 ,用常规方法的设计洪水值偏高 ,不利于水利建设。本文采用基于概率乘法定理的 型乘法频率曲线分析 ,以叶尔羌河为例 ,提出了计算这类河流设计洪水的一种理论和方法。将计算值与P- 型曲线等方法的计算值做了对比分析 ,结果表明 ,耐抗和稳健的

The characteristics of flash flood are that it occurs suddenly and fast, the process of flood is short and difficult to forecast. The change of flood peaks of flash flood is great and the design flood value is on the high side. Using the multiplicative frequency curve-Ⅲ(X-Ⅲ, for short) distribution which is based on the theory of the probability multiplication, a new method theory is presented in this paper. Took the example of Yerqiang river with the flash flood in Tarim river basin, the design flood is worked out using this method. The calculated result is compared with different methods. It shows the resistance and robustness X-Ⅲ is fit for the design flood calculation in the rivers with flash floods.