粘土边坡可靠性分析方法研究

Research for Method of Reliability Analysis for Clayey Soil Slope

把边坡定值分析法与可靠性分析法相结合 ,考虑土性参数的变异性和不确定性 .在有限土性参数数据可供利用的条件下 ,由土性参数分布的 3σ法则原理以及土性参数变异系数的公开报道值 ,取得可靠性分析数据 ,对粘土边坡稳定性和可靠性作了较为深入的研究评价 .并探讨了土性参数的变异性、安全系数变异性和可靠性指标三者之间的内在联系以及粘土边坡稳定敏感性因素及其可靠度的一些规律 .

A multiple method was presented, which combines the deterministic method and the probabilistic method, not only the method has the simplicity of deterministic method, but also it allows for the degree of uncertainty and variability of soil parameters involved in reliability index's calculation. Under the condition of limited soil parameter data available, using the probabilistic theory and '3 σ Rule' of soil parameter distribution, the data required in reliability analysis can be gained from the values of coefficients of variation from published sources, so both the slope stability and its safety degree can be estimated a little more deeply. Based upon the model of clayey soil slope, the intrinsic relationship of variability of soil parameters, variability of safety factor, and reliability index's were researched; at the same time, both some rules of reliability and the sensibility factors affecting the clayey soil slope stability were researched.