中国财政脆弱度分析

An Analysis on the Fiscal Vulnerability in China

本文运用财政脆弱度分析框架 ,对我国的财政状况进行了讨论 ,指出在初始财政形势以及短期财政风险等层面上 ,中国财政有着较大的脆弱度。中长期财政状况虽然反映出我国财政可持续能力较强 ,但如果近期经济形势和财政体制性因素不作大的调整 ,财政赤字状况恶化以及财政危机的出现还是很有可能的。

After discussing the fiscal state in China by using the analyzing framework of fiscal vulnerability,the paper points out that at the level of initial fiscal situation and shortterm fiscal risk,there exists great fiscal vulnerability in Chinese fiscality.Although the midlong term fiscal state shows that Chinese fiscality bears strong sustainability,it is quite possible for the deterioration of the state of budget deficit and the appearance of crisis,if there is no drastic adjustment in the recent economic situation and in the factors of fiscal system.