导弹落点密集度评估中最优试验数的确定方法

Analysis of the Optimal Testing Number in Dispersion Evaluation of Falling Points

从Bayes决策的观点出发,引入了损失函数,分析了导弹落点密集度评估中的试验设计问题.对落点密集度指标进行了验前、验后及预验后分析,通过极小化试验的风险可以确定最优的试验数,同时可以根据试验结果对落点散布特性进行Bayes决策分析.仿真算例说明了方法的合理性.

Related problems of experimental design in dispersion evaluation of falling points are discussed from the view of Bayesian decision, and the loss function is introduced. The prior analysis, posterior analysis and preposterior analysis are studied for dispersion evaluation of falling points. The optimal testing number is determined by minimizing the risk of sampling, and Bayesian decision for dispersion characteristic of falling points is analyzed according to the testing results. The simulation shows the proposed method reasonable.